India and World – Pakistan


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India and World – Pakistan

 

CBMs

 

CBMs help in improving the atmospherics for undertaking difficult negotiations and are not in itself a sign of successful negotiations.

2011 CBMs

  • Relate to trade and commerce
  • Both sides have agreed to reduce tariff and NTTBs
  • Form a joint trade promotion body
  • To form a JWG on economic and commercial cooperation and trade promotion
  • Pak recognized that MFN status to India will help in expanding trade
  • To double trade to USD 6 bn by 2014
  • To establish a liberalised visa regime

‘India-Pakistan are like Siamese twins who have no option but to move together even when they are attempting to pull away from each other.’

Indus Water Dispute

 

Public Perception of the dispute in Pakistan: (Op-ed)

Water crisis in Pakistan: per capita availability declined, river flows diminishing, polluted rivers.

Suggestions to make facts align with perception:

  1. A joint study needs to be made of the fact and extent of reduction in flows in the western rivers
  2. Institutional arrangements for the joint monitoring of compliance at the relevant point.
  3. Review of planned projects from the point of view of ecology and Pakistan’s apprehensions.
  4. Civil society and academia should examine matter independently (is it possible?)

Kishanganga project: India decided to construct the 330 MW Kishanganga power project on the banks of the Kishanganga river also known as the Neelum river in J&K. The water was to be diverted to Wullar lake which would severely restrict the flow of water into Jhelum river over which Pakistan has exclusive rights.

Tulbul Project is also disputed. This is aka Wular Lake project. It is located on the Jhelum river.

 

The Way forward

  • Cooperation with Pakistan is needed because:
    • Domestic: Free relationship with Pakistan would help us consolidate our nationhood
    • Regional: Regional terrorism can be effectively tackled only in cooperation with Pakistan and not in confrontation with it
    • International: India will not be able to play its dual role in international affairs so long as it is dragged down by its quarrels with Pakistan
  • Consolidate the gains of the 13 year old composite dialogue
  • For an ‘uninterrupted and uninterruptible’ dialogue
    • The venue must be such that neither India nor Pakistan can forestall the dialogue from taking place. <say the Wagah-Attari border>
    • The must be fixed periodicity at which the two sides shall necessarily meet without disruption
    • The dialogue must not be fractionated between different sets of interlocutors
    • Instead of an agenda agreed in advance, each side should be free to bring any two subjects of its choice on the table by giving due notice
    • There should be no timeline for the conclusion of the Dialogue
  • Engagement is the only way forward for India and Pakistan

 

Pakistan recognized that grant of MFN status to India would help in expanding bilateral trade relations. It has agreed to replace its present ‘Positive List’ with ‘Negative List’, by October 2011.

 

Nov 2011

Pakistan granted India MFN status

Disputes:

Kashmir:The state/province remains divided between the two countries by the Line of Control (LoC), which demarcates the ceasefire line agreed upon in the 1947 conflict.

After weeks of intense fighting between Pakistan and India, Pakistani leaders and the Indian Prime Minister Nehru declared a ceasefire and sought U.N. arbitration with the promise of a plebiscite. Sardar Patel had argued against both, describing Kashmir as a bilateral dispute and its accession as justified by international law. In 1957, north-western Kashmir was fully integrated into Pakistan, becoming Azad Kashmir (Pakistan-administered Kashmir), while the other portion was acceded to Indian control, and the state of Jammu and Kashmir (Indian-administered Kashmir) was created. In 1962, China occupied Aksai Chin

Siachen:

The conflict began in 1984 with India’s successful Operation Meghdoot during which it wrested control of the Siachen Glacier from Pakistan and forced the Pakistanis to retreat west of the Saltoro Ridge. India has established control over all of the 70 kilometres (43 mi) long Siachen Glacier and all of its tributary glaciers, as well as the three main passes of the Saltoro Ridge immediately west of the glacier—Sia La, Bilafond La, and Gyong La.The Pakistanis control the glacial valley just five kilometers southwest of Gyong La. The Pakistanis have been unable get up to the crest of the Saltoro Ridge, while the Indians cannot come down and abandon their strategic high posts.

 

The line between where Indian and Pakistani troops are presently holding onto their respective posts is being increasingly referred to as the Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL).

The conflict in Siachen stems from the incompletely demarcated territory on the map beyond the map coordinate known as NJ9842. The 1972 Simla Agreement did not clearly mention who controlled the glacier, merely stating that from the NJ9842 location the boundary would proceed “thence north to the glaciers.”

A cease fire went into effect in 2003.

One of the factors behind the Kargil War in 1999 when Pakistan sent infiltrators to occupy vacated Indian posts across the Line of Control was their belief that India would be forced to withdraw from Siachen in exchange of a Pakistani withdrawal from Kargil.

Sir Creek:The creek, which opens up into the Arabian Sea, divides the Kutch region of the Indian state of Gujarat with the Sindh province of Pakistan.

Pakistan lays claim to the entire creek as per paras 9 and 10 of the Bombay Government Resolution of 1914.India sticks to its position that the boundary lies mid-channel as depicted in another map drawn in 1925, and implemented by the installation of mid-channel pillars back in 1924.[4]

Another point of concern for Pakistan is that Sir Creek has changed its course considerably over the years. If the boundary line is demarcated according to the Thalweg principle, Pakistan stands to lose a considerable portion of the territory that was historically part of the province of Sindh. Acceding to India’s stance would also result in the shifting of the land/sea terminus point several kilometres to the detriment of Pakistan, leading in turn to a loss of several thousand square kilometres of its Exclusive Economic Zone under the United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea.

In April 1965, a dispute there contributed to the Indo-Pakistani War of 1965,A verdict was reached in 1968 which saw Pakistan getting 10% of its claim of 9,000 km² (3,500 sq. miles).

Atlantique incident

Though the creek has little military value, it holds immense economic gain.

The demarcation would also prevent the inadvertent crossing over of fishermen of both nations into each others’ territories

India supports its stance by citing the Thalweg Doctrine in International Law.

Insurgency in J&K:

A widespread armed insurgency started in Kashmir with the disputed 1987 election with some elements from the State’s assembly forming militant wings which acted as a catalyst for the emergence of armed insurgency in the region.This led to the rise of an armed insurgency movement composed, in part, of those who unfairly lost elections.[21] Pakistan supplied these groups with logistical support, arms, recuits and training.

Despite the change in the nature of the insurgency from a phenomenon supported by external forces to a primarily domestic driven movement[17][24][27][28][29] the Indian government has continued to send large numbers of troops to the Indian border and to crackdown on civil liberties.[30][27][29]

 

There have been widespread protests against Indian rule

After the invasion of Afghanistan by the Soviet Union, Mujahideen fighters, with the aid of Pakistan, slowly infiltrated Kashmir with the goal of spreading a radical Islamist ideology

The Indian National Census shows that Kashmir lags behind other states in most socio-development indicators such as literacy rates and has unusually high levels of unemployment. This contributes to anti-government sentiment.

All Parties Hurriyat Conference, an organization that uses moderate means to press for the rights of the Kashmiris, is often considered as the mediator between New Delhi and insurgent groups.

The different insurgent groups have different aims in Kashmir. Some want complete independence from both India and Pakistan, others want unification with Pakistan and still others just want greater autonomy from the Indian government.[46]

Indian analysts allege that by supporting these insurgents, Pakistan is trying to wage a proxy war against India while Pakistan claims that it regards most of these insurgent groups as “freedom fighters” rather than terrorists

 

A 2010 survey found that 43% in J&K would favour independence, with support for the independence movement unevenly distributed across the region

River water sharing:

Afghan:

. Pakistan supported the anti-Soviet mujahadeen and then the Taliban “to ensure that in the event of conflict with India, Afghanistan would provide Pakistan with support and use of its land and air space if needed,” write Afghanistan experts Barnett R. Rubin and Abubakar Siddique in a 2006 USIP report (PDF). Pakistani military plan­ners, they write, refer to this as the quest for “strategic depth.” In this Foreign Affairs essay, Rubin argues that Pakistan’s military establishment has always approached the various wars in and around Afghanistan as a function of its main institutional and national security interests: “first and foremost, balancing India.”

“Pakistan’s fears of encirclement (PDF) by India have been compounded” by the new Indian air base in Farkhor, Tajikistan,

It is no surprise then that Pakistan sees India’s growing influence in Afghanistan as a threat. After India opened consulates in Herat, Mazar-e-Sharif, Jalalabad, and Kandahar, Pakistan charged that these consulates provide cover for Indian intelligence agencies to run covert operations against Pakistan, as well as foment separatism in Pakistan’s Balochistan province.

TimeLine:

Shimla Agreement:The agreement laid down the principles that should govern their future relations. It also conceived steps to be taken for further normalization of mutual relations. Most importantly, it bound the two countries “to settle their differences by peaceful means through bilateral negotiations

The accord converted the 1949 UN “Cease-fire Line” into the Line of Control (LOC) between Pakistan and India which however did not affect the status of the disputed territory:

Diplomatic and trade relations were also re-established in 1976.

 

In December 1988, Prime Ministers Benazir Bhutto and Rajiv Gandhi concluded a pact not to attack each other’s nuclear facilities

In May 1998 India, and then Pakistan, conducted nuclear tests.

The Lahore Declaration was signed on February 21 along with a memorandum of understanding (MoU) after three rounds of talks between the Indian and Pakistani leaders.[1][4] In its content, both governments asserted their commitment to the vision of peace, stability and mutual progress and their full commitment to the Shimla Agreement and the Charter of the United Nations. Both governments recognized through the Lahore Declaration that the development of nuclear weapons brought added responsibility to both nations towards avoiding conflict and promoted the importance of Confidence-building measures, especially to avoid accidental and unauthorised use of nuclear weapons.[1][4] India and Pakistan also decided to give each other advance notification of ballistic missile flight tests and accidental or unexplained use of nuclear weapons to avoid the outbreak of a nuclear conflict.

Kargil War

The Agra summit was a two-day summit held on July 15th and 16th, 2001 between Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee. It was organized with the aim to resolve long-standing issues between India and Pakistan.

 

Violent activities in the region declined in 2004. There are two main reasons for this: warming of relations between New Delhi and Islamabad which consequently lead to a ceasefire between the two countries in 2003 and the fencing of the LOC being carried out by the Indian Army. Moreover, coming under intense international pressure, Islamabad was compelled to take actions against the militants’ training camps on its territory. In 2004, the two countries also agreed upon decreasing the number of troops present in the region.

On June 20, 2004, with a new government in place in India, both countries agreed to extend a nuclear testing ban and to set up a hotline between their foreign secretaries aimed at preventing misunderstandings that might lead to a nuclear war.

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